Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
