Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
